Unscripted diplomacy may steal the APEC Gyeongju show

Graphics by AJP Song Ji-yoonSEOUL, October 22 (AJP) - Last-minute agenda-setting bustle is in full swing with nine days left until the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit brings together most-watched global leaders to the ancient city of Gyeongju, South Korea.

Bets are high on a potential showdown between U.S. and Chinese leaders as stakes on the tariff war go ever higher. The stage sets the first meeting between South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, as well as the diplomatic debut for Japan's new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.

Speculation about an impromptu encounter between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un adds to the intrigue.

Unscripted diplomacy may steal this year's APEC, whose official agenda centers on trade, technology and inclusive growth.

U.S.-China Summit?

The biggest question heading into APEC week is whether Trump and Xi will hold their first face-to-face talks since Trump's return to the White House. Their last meeting took place in Osaka in June 2019 on the sidelines of the G20, months before trade negotiations between the two collapsed. The most recent leader-level contact came under the Biden administration at the 2023 APEC summit in San Francisco.

Now, with tariff disputes dominating headlines, attention is again turning to the world's two largest economies. Chinese and U.S. officials are set to hold a high-level meeting in Malaysia this week, interpreted as groundwork for a potential Trump-Xi summit in Gyeongju.

Expectations have grown as Washington signals possible movement on the issue. Trump said Monday he expected to strike a "fantastic deal" with China — describing it as a fair and reciprocal agreement similar to those recently signed with South Korea, Japan and the European Union (EU). He added that he planned to meet Xi during APEC in Korea, suggesting the summit could mark their first direct encounter in six years.

Seoul's Bilateral Diplomacy with Tokyo and Beijing

Working-level talks are also under way for a summit between South Korea and Japan, and discussions are ongoing for a possible meeting between South Korea and China.

In Tokyo, Prime Minister Takaichi is preparing for her diplomatic debut. "South Korea is an important neighbor and a necessary partner in tackling global challenges," she said shortly after taking office, adding that she hopes to meet Lee soon.

Her remarks signaled Tokyo's willingness to sustain dialogue even under a conservative administration. Still, her right-leaning cabinet has stirred unease in Seoul, where the APEC encounter is seen as the first test of a renewed bilateral relationship.

Seoul's summit with China is also on the radar. Since his inauguration, Lee has met with the leaders of the U.S. and Japan but not with Xi, leaving a visible gap in his regional outreach. The upcoming APEC offers a natural venue to change that.

"If Xi attends APEC but skips a summit with President Lee, that message would be enormous," said Lee Dong-gyu, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. "It could be seen as Beijing deliberately distancing itself from the Lee administration. But I don't think China would want to damage the relationship to that extent."
 Graphics by AJP Song Ji-yoonNorth Korea: Another Panmunjom Moment?

Trump's visit to Gyeongju for APEC has reignited speculation over a possible meeting with Kim Jong-un. The memory of their impromptu handshake at Panmunjom in 2019 — arranged in less than 32 hours after Trump tweeted his willingness to meet Kim — continues to fuel rumors of another "surprise summit," though experts remain largely skeptical.

Yoshihiro Makino, visiting professor at Hiroshima University, said the 2019 encounter was preceded by months of quiet coordination between Washington and Pyongyang, something absent this time. "There is no visible preparation, no working-level contact, no back channel between the two countries," he said. "If it happens, it would be purely a surprise encounter — nothing more, nothing less."

Still, many agree that Trump's unpredictability makes such speculation impossible to dismiss entirely.

Meanwhile, North Korea made sure it remains in the picture by firing multiple short-range ballistic missiles on Wednesday – its first launch since Lee took office in June and the first in about five months. The launch, coming just days before the APEC summit, appeared aimed at gaining diplomatic leverage.

AJP contacted the White House to confirm whether a Trump-Kim encounter was discussed or included in the president's APEC schedule but has not yet received a response.

Beyond the headline meetings, APEC's sidelines are expected to be packed. South Korea is arranging talks with Indonesia and Vietnam on supply-chain and artificial intelligence cooperation, with more diplomatic engagements expected throughout the week.
Cheon Soram 기자 cheons@ajupress.com